Trading Lowell

Why on earth are the Redsox trading away 2007 World Series MVP Mike Lowell? We're paying him and Julio Lugo a combined $18 million dollars to play on other teams. What did we get for our .280 20/80 guy? The 3rd best catching prospect in the Texas Rangers system. A now 25 year old who has struggled in AAA since 2008. His numbers for Rookie league, A and AA were phenominal, but he has yet to figure how to hit AAA pitchers. In the Redsox organization there are 2 catchers in their top 20 prospects, with Luis Exposito nearly cracking the top 10, this trade doesnt seem to make sense to either side.

Texas moved Michael Young to 3rd base because of the emergence of Elvis Andrus, and they have uberprospect Justin Smoak waiting to reach the show, granted I'm not sure how far away he is in terms of skill, but with Chris Davis currently manning first base, where would Lowell play? His bat, albeit better than Andruw Jones last year, is still not the prototypical DH. He may be a decent bat, but it'd play much better at 3rd. Platooning him and Davis may be what the Rangers do. But what would this move do for the Redsox current plans?

Would we shift over Kevin Youkilis, and play Casey Kotchman at first? Would we sign Adrian Beltre? Would we sign Miguel Tejada? Who knows. But a good clubhouse guy with an .800 on base percentage with $9 million dollars I guess is the equivelancy of a 25 year old underachieving AAA catcher.

Maybe this move will yield a better result. Maybe packaging Casey Kotchman, Max Ramirez, and some other minor leaguers for a big bat like Adrian Gonzalez, or for power pitchers Josh Johnson or Roy Halladay.

In Theo we trust?

Melky V Hawpe

Through http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/ I have seen many examples of questionable trade offers, and one that made me think was how the trade of Brad Hawpe (Rockies) for Melky Cabrera (Yankees) would be a horrible deal for the Yankees.

Melky has a career UZR of –13.5 in CF, which is his position. A career UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) throughout the outfield of –8.7, meaning he gives up between 8.7 and 13.5 runs more than an average outfielder. That’s straight up awful. His OPS (On base + Slugging %) has maxed out at .752 in the majors with a high of 8 home runs in a season. Melky is an offensive liability, averaging through his career a .269 average. Melky with that is worth 3.3 WAR (wins over replacement).

Hawpe may statistically be one of the worst outfielders in history according to UZR. He’s a right fielder, and his UZR there is –91. When it’s rated in the UZR/150 (Ultimate Zone Rate over 150 games), his UZR is only –21.6, which is still awful. This year he matched that average with a –21.3 UZR. However, he does something that Melky doesn’t. Hawpe can hit for power. He averages 18.5 home runs a season, has an OPS average over his career of .845, and has hit for a .283 average through his career. Even with his horrible defense, he’s averaged being worth 3.7 WAR.

Melky is younger, and plays better defense (granted, I could go out and probably play better defense) but is quintessentially a fourth outfielder, while Hawpe should be a DH, he’s worth more with his bat, if an AL team tried getting him, and put him at DH, he would be worth an amazing 21.5 WAR.

Chase Utely

Side note, regardless of who wins the world series, Chase Uteley needs to be the MVP. Hopefully he can hit another homer to break the record before the whole shibang is over.

Adam Dunn

I, for the life of me, CANNOT, understand the lack of interest in Adam Dunn. I know he ended up signing with the Nats but I just do not get it. He is guaranteed to hit you close to 40 HR's in any season in almost any situation. He hit 38 in 2009 which was his lowest for the past few years. However, his average went up to .268, which is much better than his usual. I know he strikes out quite a bit, has shotty defense and fails to hit for average. This keeps him from being an elite player, but I will argue to the end that he is a great player and should not be wasting his time on a team like the Nats. He would be a great bargain for a team like Boston looking to replace Papi. I know its not quite that time yet but I just could not understand the lack of interest last off season, and I pray to god I see his name come up more this year. Guarenteed close to 40 HRs if not more..40 Hrs....

Joe Mauer

Not a free agent until after 2010, Joe Mauer will be on the 2010 Twins team pending an unlikely trade scenario. He has expressed interest in staying on his hometown team but you never know what will happen. If he makes it to free agency, he could end up being one of the highest paid players ever, and in order for the Twins to retain him, he would need to be willing to take a huge hometown discount. What teams should be interested in acquiring him? Pretty much everyone except the Braves, Phillies, Cardinals, Orioles and perhaps the Rays, who all have great young catchers. Now, what teams will be able to afford him? Thats a whole new story. My guess as well as many other's, would be the Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, and Twins pending a home town discount. The Mets can afford it, but they should probably stick with Schneider and pour their money into the outfield and perhaps some pitching. The Yankees will most likely be players if he hits FA, and the Sox will need to do everything they can to keep him out of NY. Not only could they use him to bolster their own lineup, but he would be a great thorn in their side if he signs with the Yankees. The Sox could make Youkilis their third baseman, move martinez to first, and let one of the games best young players fill the catcher position.

Manny Ramirez

While it is not an absolute certainty, Manny will most likely be with the Dodgers in 2010. Despite a slight decline as well as his suspension, he is still one of the best hitters in the game. He can pick up his option for $20 million then try for a one or two year contract after next season. That being said, I would not be at all surprised if he declined it and hit the FA market this year. Nobody really knows what goes on in the wonderful mind of Manny. What AL teams might be interested? He decided that he would be better fitted as a DH as opposed to a Left fielder. What teams may be interested?

IF, he would be willing to take a discount,

I could see the Royals, Twins, Rangers, and perhaps the Rays showing interest.

Any thoughts?

New Writer

In addition to Phil, I'll also be writing for this blog.

Fan of:

AL-Redsox, Athletics, and Tigers.

NL-Mets, Giants, and Marlins.

Although most of Phil and my articles will be written based off of speculation, and personal opinion (and in Phil's cases, with bias); we'll do our best to keep you, the reader, in the know, often by passing along information, or by having you check out the site MLBTraderumors, where there's an extensive selection of non-biased material.

Happy Reading;

Dan