Trading Lowell

Why on earth are the Redsox trading away 2007 World Series MVP Mike Lowell? We're paying him and Julio Lugo a combined $18 million dollars to play on other teams. What did we get for our .280 20/80 guy? The 3rd best catching prospect in the Texas Rangers system. A now 25 year old who has struggled in AAA since 2008. His numbers for Rookie league, A and AA were phenominal, but he has yet to figure how to hit AAA pitchers. In the Redsox organization there are 2 catchers in their top 20 prospects, with Luis Exposito nearly cracking the top 10, this trade doesnt seem to make sense to either side.

Texas moved Michael Young to 3rd base because of the emergence of Elvis Andrus, and they have uberprospect Justin Smoak waiting to reach the show, granted I'm not sure how far away he is in terms of skill, but with Chris Davis currently manning first base, where would Lowell play? His bat, albeit better than Andruw Jones last year, is still not the prototypical DH. He may be a decent bat, but it'd play much better at 3rd. Platooning him and Davis may be what the Rangers do. But what would this move do for the Redsox current plans?

Would we shift over Kevin Youkilis, and play Casey Kotchman at first? Would we sign Adrian Beltre? Would we sign Miguel Tejada? Who knows. But a good clubhouse guy with an .800 on base percentage with $9 million dollars I guess is the equivelancy of a 25 year old underachieving AAA catcher.

Maybe this move will yield a better result. Maybe packaging Casey Kotchman, Max Ramirez, and some other minor leaguers for a big bat like Adrian Gonzalez, or for power pitchers Josh Johnson or Roy Halladay.

In Theo we trust?

Melky V Hawpe

Through http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/ I have seen many examples of questionable trade offers, and one that made me think was how the trade of Brad Hawpe (Rockies) for Melky Cabrera (Yankees) would be a horrible deal for the Yankees.

Melky has a career UZR of –13.5 in CF, which is his position. A career UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) throughout the outfield of –8.7, meaning he gives up between 8.7 and 13.5 runs more than an average outfielder. That’s straight up awful. His OPS (On base + Slugging %) has maxed out at .752 in the majors with a high of 8 home runs in a season. Melky is an offensive liability, averaging through his career a .269 average. Melky with that is worth 3.3 WAR (wins over replacement).

Hawpe may statistically be one of the worst outfielders in history according to UZR. He’s a right fielder, and his UZR there is –91. When it’s rated in the UZR/150 (Ultimate Zone Rate over 150 games), his UZR is only –21.6, which is still awful. This year he matched that average with a –21.3 UZR. However, he does something that Melky doesn’t. Hawpe can hit for power. He averages 18.5 home runs a season, has an OPS average over his career of .845, and has hit for a .283 average through his career. Even with his horrible defense, he’s averaged being worth 3.7 WAR.

Melky is younger, and plays better defense (granted, I could go out and probably play better defense) but is quintessentially a fourth outfielder, while Hawpe should be a DH, he’s worth more with his bat, if an AL team tried getting him, and put him at DH, he would be worth an amazing 21.5 WAR.

Chase Utely

Side note, regardless of who wins the world series, Chase Uteley needs to be the MVP. Hopefully he can hit another homer to break the record before the whole shibang is over.

Adam Dunn

I, for the life of me, CANNOT, understand the lack of interest in Adam Dunn. I know he ended up signing with the Nats but I just do not get it. He is guaranteed to hit you close to 40 HR's in any season in almost any situation. He hit 38 in 2009 which was his lowest for the past few years. However, his average went up to .268, which is much better than his usual. I know he strikes out quite a bit, has shotty defense and fails to hit for average. This keeps him from being an elite player, but I will argue to the end that he is a great player and should not be wasting his time on a team like the Nats. He would be a great bargain for a team like Boston looking to replace Papi. I know its not quite that time yet but I just could not understand the lack of interest last off season, and I pray to god I see his name come up more this year. Guarenteed close to 40 HRs if not more..40 Hrs....

Joe Mauer

Not a free agent until after 2010, Joe Mauer will be on the 2010 Twins team pending an unlikely trade scenario. He has expressed interest in staying on his hometown team but you never know what will happen. If he makes it to free agency, he could end up being one of the highest paid players ever, and in order for the Twins to retain him, he would need to be willing to take a huge hometown discount. What teams should be interested in acquiring him? Pretty much everyone except the Braves, Phillies, Cardinals, Orioles and perhaps the Rays, who all have great young catchers. Now, what teams will be able to afford him? Thats a whole new story. My guess as well as many other's, would be the Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, and Twins pending a home town discount. The Mets can afford it, but they should probably stick with Schneider and pour their money into the outfield and perhaps some pitching. The Yankees will most likely be players if he hits FA, and the Sox will need to do everything they can to keep him out of NY. Not only could they use him to bolster their own lineup, but he would be a great thorn in their side if he signs with the Yankees. The Sox could make Youkilis their third baseman, move martinez to first, and let one of the games best young players fill the catcher position.

Manny Ramirez

While it is not an absolute certainty, Manny will most likely be with the Dodgers in 2010. Despite a slight decline as well as his suspension, he is still one of the best hitters in the game. He can pick up his option for $20 million then try for a one or two year contract after next season. That being said, I would not be at all surprised if he declined it and hit the FA market this year. Nobody really knows what goes on in the wonderful mind of Manny. What AL teams might be interested? He decided that he would be better fitted as a DH as opposed to a Left fielder. What teams may be interested?

IF, he would be willing to take a discount,

I could see the Royals, Twins, Rangers, and perhaps the Rays showing interest.

Any thoughts?

New Writer

In addition to Phil, I'll also be writing for this blog.

Fan of:

AL-Redsox, Athletics, and Tigers.

NL-Mets, Giants, and Marlins.

Although most of Phil and my articles will be written based off of speculation, and personal opinion (and in Phil's cases, with bias); we'll do our best to keep you, the reader, in the know, often by passing along information, or by having you check out the site MLBTraderumors, where there's an extensive selection of non-biased material.

Happy Reading;

Dan

Redsox offseason outlook

-Dan Eveline

Lineup:
C-Victor Martinez
C-
1b-Kevin Youkilis
2b-Dustin Pedroia
3b-Mike Lowell
SS-Jed Lowrie
LF-
CF-Jacoby Ellsbury
RF-JD Drew
DH-David Ortiz

Rotation:
Sp-Josh Beckett
Sp-Jon Lester
Sp-Clay Buchholz
Sp-Daisuke Matsuzaka
Sp-Tim Wakefield

Rp-Ramon Ramirez
Rp-Manny DelCarmen
Rp-Daniel Bard
Rp-Hideki Okajima
Cp-Jonathan Papelbon

Free Agents to Be:
Jason Bay-LF. very likely to leave, but will most likely be given a contract in the range of 4 years $60 million.

Alex Gonzalez-SS. $6 million option, most likely excersised due to he being a decent shortstop in a position that has eluded a good player since he himself played a few years back

Jason Varitek-C. $3 million player option, team option most likely will be declined. It may be time for Varitek to retire and latch on as a coach in the Redsox organization.

Takashi Saito-RP. Option declined, but very likely to resign for a lower price.

Billy Wagner-RP. Wants to close, so he'll likely decline arbitration, and become a free agent, however he'll need to decide whether he wants a big payday and accept and just be a relief pitcher (arbitration needs to be at least 80% of the previous contract), or decline and take his chances in the free agent market.

On a related note, there may be a chance that the Redsox try trading Papelbon to a team in a package for a player such as Felix Hernandez or Adrian Gonzalez (provided that Heath Bell gets traded first), or for a package of young cost controlled players.

What's needed:
A left fielder. A lot of people complain about JD Drew's contract. In essense the contract that Bay will be receiving will be a good comparison between he and Drew. He's on the wrong side of 30, and is a poor fielder. Matt Holliday, in limited sample size has hit very well in Fenway Park, but would cost an arm and a leg in the bidding war that (agent Scott) Boras will be lobbying for. What i'd advise is to sign Jack Cust if he isn't tendered a contract, or maybe a trade for Adam Dunn, both are high power, low average guys who play subpar defense, but would help the Redsox with the recent struggles of David Ortiz and the fragility of Mike Lowell.

A catcher. Sign a stopgap guy to backup for Martinez, maybe a reunion with Josh Bard. Trade for Chris Snyder of the Diamondbacks, who could very well be had for salary relief due to the emergence of Miguel Montero, or call up Luis Exposito, Tim Federowicz, or Mark Wagner, all of which aren't presently ready to succeed in the major leagues.

Attempt to sign some relief pitchers. With Saito likely to resign at a lower salary, the Redsox
should attempt to sign Will Ohman or possibly if he isn't looking for a closer role, a reunion with Brandon Lyon.

Acquire a starting pitcher. I envision the Redsox signing at least one low-risk high-reward starter such as Rich Harden, Erik Bedard, Justin Duchscherer, but one pitcher I could see the Redsox seriously signing as a reclamation project is Noah Lowry on a minor league deal. Since he's had an injury that has made him unable to pitch through the last season, he'll likely be had for little.

Try to acquire a power hitting corner infielder. Try to sign someone to spell Lowell at third, or to spell Youkilis at first so he can play third, because Casey Kotchman doesn't have the power of a first baseman. Possibly sign someone along the lines of Hank Blalock, who could be a perfect fit as the backup.

Allow the players in the minors to develop fully. Let Michael Bowden, Lars Anderson, Josh Reddick, the three catchers I mentioned above, and Cuban shortstop Jose Iglesias time to develop fully and be ready by either September callups, or by spring training in 2011.

2010 may be a very long year for the Redsox if they don't accomplish (m)any of the goals that I believe should be the keys to the 2009-2010 offseason.

Future HoFers

Just want to give my opinion on some current and recently retired players that seem either to be "shoe-ins" or "maybe's".

Griffey: Yes

Pujols: Yes

Chipper: Yes

Jason Giambi: No, And not because of steroid use 

Pedro:Yes

Mussina:No

Damon:No

Renteria:No

Schilling:Yes

Randy Johnson:Yes

Manny: Yes

David Ortiz: No

Ichiro:Yes

Beltran:Yes

Halladay: No

Biggio:Yes

Roberto Alomar:Yes

Maddux:Yes

Bernie Williams:Yes

Glaus:No

Nomar:No

St. Louis Cardinals

Some Cardinals Fans are distraught do to the managements lack in big moves in this bad economic time,  but I'm going to tell you why they are ok with their team as it stands now. 

They have one of the best outfields with Ludwick, Ankiel, and Schumaker, the perrenial MVP candidate in Pujols, a slugger in Glaus at 3rd, recently acquired Khalil Greene will be much better out of Petco, and they have a great catcher in Molina. Now, they're only real problem is the rotation. Carpenter and Mulder are both ?'s so I agree with the fans in saying they could add another starter or two, but really, whos available.. Sheets...Garland..Both injury prone guys so, with the market as it is, there is really no need for the Card's to make any big moves.

Ryan Howard trade possibility

So I have heard on numerous accounts that Ryan Howard may be traded. despite how credible they may or may not be, I'm taking a look at any possibilities.

So for tonight I'm going to talk about the one team I think makes the most sense. They have great pitching annually  and are on the verge of contending and Ryan howard and another impact player would give them that push into contention (along with the other three contenders in the division...). Yeah, I'm talking about Toronto.

The possibility of this actually happening is slim due to J.P. Ricchardi's Passive tendencies, but its fun to discuss.

Oh yeah and as a Sox fan, this isn't a trade i'd really hope for...

Anyways..

How does 

Vernon Well+ Lyle Overbay+ Jesse Litchse or Shawn Marcum and $ ---> Ryan Howard, and an Outfielder other than Victorino

Then the Jays could either use that outfielder (if good enough) or Andruw Jones (if good enough) to replace Vernon Wells

Wadda Ya think?

Manny Ramirez-Interesting thought

I heard an interesting team connected to Manny Ramirez on MLBTraderumors.com. The Detroit TIgers. 

Would his addition give them enough power and hitting to be good or would it be a waste due to their insufficient pitching?

Andruw Jones

Andruw was one of my favorite players growing up and I want to discuss some of his options. The most likely scenario (and definitely the best for him) would be for him to accept a $600k or so minor league contract from the Braves. The contract could have incentives and whatnot for games played so that he would feel like he is being treated well. This would  also benefit the Braves because they wouldn't be just handing him the money. 

Other teams that could be interested if the price is right: Toronto, Seattle, New York Yankees, Arizona, Both Chicago Teams, and Cincinnati. 

In my opinion all of those teams would be wise to look at him (as would my Red Sox) as it is a stern possibility that he returns to his former self. I don't see him hitting much higher than .250 but if he played every day I would bet my hat he could mash up to 30 HR's.

Oh yeah, almost forgot. Say what you want, but if i knew a lot of balls were going to be hit to the outfield on a given day, I don't care if he goes 1-5 with 3 k's, I want Andruw Jones in my outfield.

How the San Francisco Giants can win their first division title in 6 years

Ok for starters, lets get a clean template out. Now, the San Diego Padres are horrendous, and will not contend. Period. The Rockies are a joke. They were terrible last year and the only change they have really made was trading their best reliever for a number 5 (at best) starter in Marquis. Ok so, they're out of the picture. Now that leaves us with the Giants, Dodgers, and Arizona. Arizona only came close because they acquired Adum Dunn at the trade deadline, so i am going to predict that they won't be too much competition unless Brandom Webb (their only decent starter with the loss of Johnson TO the Giants) is unbeleivable, fantastic, amazing, perfect, lights-out, you name it.  Now, the Dodgers won the division, but have lost Lowe. Now a huge factor is who gets Manny Ramirez. We have to assume that Manny goes to the Giants or the Dodgers.  If the Giants get him, it could be a tricky situation. 1. The contract. If Manny gets his four years or whatever he'll probably start to act like a turd agian. 2. You already have tons of righties and only 2 semi true lefties (one of which would probably have to bounce if Manny is added). How do we fix this disaster? Hmm OH! I got it, let the cry baby Dodgers have the biggest cry baby player ever in Manny, and Sign Adam Dunn. Problem solved. Now, under these circumstances the Giants have the Best Rotation in the NL WEST (that includes the best pitcher in the NL if not MLB=Lincecum) (IF, healthy..IF healthy..yes I said IF Noah Lowry, Matt Cain, Randy Johnson are healthy..IF...), a solid lineup IF, everyone produces. Now, Adam Dunn could play 1B for you (instead of Ishikawa or whoever else was gunna get stuffed into that role) and you would have a true lefty, a true cleanup hitter, and a lot of RBI's if Renteria turns into his old "terrific in the NL-Self" and Emmanuel Burriss plays well (he hit  .298 in 95 or so games last year so we can assume he wont be hitting lower than .280 but hopefully better for the Giants sake) and then you have some great options for a 3 hitter in Fred lewis (prob not 2 lefties in a row) So how about Randy Winn Or Molina? Either is great, ok.

So our starting rotation:

1.Lincecum

2.Matt Cain

3.Randy Johnson

4.Noah Lowry

5.Barry Zito

and Sanchez Probably going to hold down the BP (Closer?) (in my world anyways..)

for the Bullpen..eh i've seen better but i've seen much much worse and they added Affeldt, so they should be a little more solid this year. (Again, according to my plan)

Lineup:

1.Renteria-R(SS)

2.Burriss-S(2B)

3.Winn-S(RF)

4.Dunn-L(1B)

5.Molina-R(C)

6.Lewis-L(LF)

7.Rowand-R(CF)

8.Sandoval-S?(3B)

9.Pitcher

Now just take a look up and down that lineup a few times.. mmhmm, a couple more...mmmm thats it, good...

Now Sandoval is kind of a question mark because he played 40-something games and hit .348.So, over a full season that includes slumps and hot streaks we can assume he ends up around .300 with some decent power numbers. So, when you look at a lineup that just got reworked like this, and Aaron Rowan is your worst starting hitter (coming off of a bad year), things are looking really, really good.

Anyways, this team would also include Dave Roberts as a 4th outfielder, A solid hitting 3rd baseman/backup catcher in Sandoval and a rising star (catcher) in Buster Posey who could join the team mid year.

What team in the NL west with or without Manny Ramirez is going to come out on top of THIS Giants team? Answer=None. (note all I did was have them sign Adam Dunn and assume everyone was going to play well and be healthy)

Jim Rice-HoF

Does he deserve to be there?

I think so.

Career .298 hitter with a .352 OBP and 382 HR's

Rice spent all 16 years with the same team, so in my opinion, due to his numbers, dedication and the fact that he was arguably one of the (if not the most) feared sluggers of his time, he deserves this spot in the HoF. 

What do you think?

Advantage in the AL East?

Although i'm not yet going to predict the placing in the AL east, I wanted to give my opinion on who has the advantage going into the season. The Yankees are almost always a perennial contender for the division, and with their recent additions, I think they are definatally going to contend in 09'. They added the best free agent pitcher in Sabathia, and pretty much the best free agent hitter (considered the best due to his age and consistency) in Tiexiera (in my opinion, Dunn is just as good if not better (offensively) due to his home runs and OBP. And then theres Manny, but yeah, you know, he'd be worth more if he didn't have to be Manny being Manny).  Along with those two players, they added Burnett, who can be nasty if he's healthy, but hes also shown lack of heart and commitment, but who knows, that could change now that he is with a better team.

Next there's the Red Sox, who have been perennial contenders for the better half of this last decade. They also seem like they are going to be able to contend for years to come with one of the best farm systems out there.  They have a solid rotation and bullpen (as well as a pitching surplus this year), a great veteran presence, the reining AL MVP, and some great sluggers, but it always seems to be their emerging talent that wins them ball games. *See Papelbon in 06', Ellsbury in 07' and Lowerie in 08'.  So I guess according to my theory, the Sox's fate  in 09' will depend on wether their emerging talent has an impact.

Finally, (yes finally) theres the Rays, whom in my opinion have the Advantage heading into the 2009 season. They have a great rotation, let me rephrase that. A great, very young rotation that is now a year older, wiser, and assumingly better due to their run last year in the playoffs. They also have in my opinion the best lineup in baseball at this time. B.J. Upton was INSANE in the playoffs (and defensively), Evan Longoria was the Rookie of the year, and was a very dangerous player throughout his first experience in the playoffs. Expect the two of them to be better this year, Carlos Penawill be his 30-40 HR hitting self, and they have also added Pat Burrell (who has my respect and admiration) who is capable of hitting 30+ HRs. Navarro never let his AVG go below .300 which fantastic for a catcher. THe only weak spot I see with the rays is the bullpen. They have no definite closer (please do not say Dan Wheeler), and they were almost too perfect last year. Look for guys like Balfour and Howell to let their ERA's go up. 

Let me know what you think, again, this is all just me expressing my opinion and I would like to hear what you have to say on this topic. Serious, unbiased discussion only please.

Red Sox Pitching- New Signings

Only fitting my first entry be about my favorite team (no biased commentary)

Contrary to some belief, the Sox have not taken any risks whatsoever. 5-10 mil (Smoltz) is like pocket change for a beggar when it comes to teams like the Sox and Yanks. The sox have only opened up more options with the recent signings of Penny, Smoltz, and Saito.  Granted they are all "at risk" of getting injured or having a bad season (aren't all pitchers?), all of them have a good chance of turning out to be a positive and worthwhile signing. If Penny (who is a little younger), returns to his former self and works out, the sox will definitely have room to trade one or maybe even two young pitchers for a Catcher or maybe something else if the need arises. Speaking of which, might as well kill two birds with one stone and cover the brutal Red Sox Catching topic. Seems like Bucholz is staying put no matter what. The Sox seem to have made that pretty clear, which is good because a semi-desperate team like Texas will probably lower demands/negotiate with a team like the Sox that have a healthy farm system. Despite  the more noted interests in Saltalamacchia (Texas) and Miguel Montero (D'Backs), I beleive the Sox should go after Taylor Teagarden (also Texas). He would cost a little bit more but is much better defensively and much more well rounded offensively. Also, Montero Flopped in his first call up, often a sign of future failure due to insecurities and lack of confidence. 

I would say that the sox are about done with adding pitchers (and players) for the most part, but expect them to at least inquire on Dunn, maybe even if at the last minute to spice things up. Despite him being a lefty, id say Dunn could do all the same things offensively Texiera could do (if not more due to his HR's)

-Phil Cervelli