Melky V Hawpe

Through http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/ I have seen many examples of questionable trade offers, and one that made me think was how the trade of Brad Hawpe (Rockies) for Melky Cabrera (Yankees) would be a horrible deal for the Yankees.

Melky has a career UZR of –13.5 in CF, which is his position. A career UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) throughout the outfield of –8.7, meaning he gives up between 8.7 and 13.5 runs more than an average outfielder. That’s straight up awful. His OPS (On base + Slugging %) has maxed out at .752 in the majors with a high of 8 home runs in a season. Melky is an offensive liability, averaging through his career a .269 average. Melky with that is worth 3.3 WAR (wins over replacement).

Hawpe may statistically be one of the worst outfielders in history according to UZR. He’s a right fielder, and his UZR there is –91. When it’s rated in the UZR/150 (Ultimate Zone Rate over 150 games), his UZR is only –21.6, which is still awful. This year he matched that average with a –21.3 UZR. However, he does something that Melky doesn’t. Hawpe can hit for power. He averages 18.5 home runs a season, has an OPS average over his career of .845, and has hit for a .283 average through his career. Even with his horrible defense, he’s averaged being worth 3.7 WAR.

Melky is younger, and plays better defense (granted, I could go out and probably play better defense) but is quintessentially a fourth outfielder, while Hawpe should be a DH, he’s worth more with his bat, if an AL team tried getting him, and put him at DH, he would be worth an amazing 21.5 WAR.

Chase Utely

Side note, regardless of who wins the world series, Chase Uteley needs to be the MVP. Hopefully he can hit another homer to break the record before the whole shibang is over.

Adam Dunn

I, for the life of me, CANNOT, understand the lack of interest in Adam Dunn. I know he ended up signing with the Nats but I just do not get it. He is guaranteed to hit you close to 40 HR's in any season in almost any situation. He hit 38 in 2009 which was his lowest for the past few years. However, his average went up to .268, which is much better than his usual. I know he strikes out quite a bit, has shotty defense and fails to hit for average. This keeps him from being an elite player, but I will argue to the end that he is a great player and should not be wasting his time on a team like the Nats. He would be a great bargain for a team like Boston looking to replace Papi. I know its not quite that time yet but I just could not understand the lack of interest last off season, and I pray to god I see his name come up more this year. Guarenteed close to 40 HRs if not more..40 Hrs....

Joe Mauer

Not a free agent until after 2010, Joe Mauer will be on the 2010 Twins team pending an unlikely trade scenario. He has expressed interest in staying on his hometown team but you never know what will happen. If he makes it to free agency, he could end up being one of the highest paid players ever, and in order for the Twins to retain him, he would need to be willing to take a huge hometown discount. What teams should be interested in acquiring him? Pretty much everyone except the Braves, Phillies, Cardinals, Orioles and perhaps the Rays, who all have great young catchers. Now, what teams will be able to afford him? Thats a whole new story. My guess as well as many other's, would be the Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, and Twins pending a home town discount. The Mets can afford it, but they should probably stick with Schneider and pour their money into the outfield and perhaps some pitching. The Yankees will most likely be players if he hits FA, and the Sox will need to do everything they can to keep him out of NY. Not only could they use him to bolster their own lineup, but he would be a great thorn in their side if he signs with the Yankees. The Sox could make Youkilis their third baseman, move martinez to first, and let one of the games best young players fill the catcher position.

Manny Ramirez

While it is not an absolute certainty, Manny will most likely be with the Dodgers in 2010. Despite a slight decline as well as his suspension, he is still one of the best hitters in the game. He can pick up his option for $20 million then try for a one or two year contract after next season. That being said, I would not be at all surprised if he declined it and hit the FA market this year. Nobody really knows what goes on in the wonderful mind of Manny. What AL teams might be interested? He decided that he would be better fitted as a DH as opposed to a Left fielder. What teams may be interested?

IF, he would be willing to take a discount,

I could see the Royals, Twins, Rangers, and perhaps the Rays showing interest.

Any thoughts?

New Writer

In addition to Phil, I'll also be writing for this blog.

Fan of:

AL-Redsox, Athletics, and Tigers.

NL-Mets, Giants, and Marlins.

Although most of Phil and my articles will be written based off of speculation, and personal opinion (and in Phil's cases, with bias); we'll do our best to keep you, the reader, in the know, often by passing along information, or by having you check out the site MLBTraderumors, where there's an extensive selection of non-biased material.

Happy Reading;

Dan

Redsox offseason outlook

-Dan Eveline

Lineup:
C-Victor Martinez
C-
1b-Kevin Youkilis
2b-Dustin Pedroia
3b-Mike Lowell
SS-Jed Lowrie
LF-
CF-Jacoby Ellsbury
RF-JD Drew
DH-David Ortiz

Rotation:
Sp-Josh Beckett
Sp-Jon Lester
Sp-Clay Buchholz
Sp-Daisuke Matsuzaka
Sp-Tim Wakefield

Rp-Ramon Ramirez
Rp-Manny DelCarmen
Rp-Daniel Bard
Rp-Hideki Okajima
Cp-Jonathan Papelbon

Free Agents to Be:
Jason Bay-LF. very likely to leave, but will most likely be given a contract in the range of 4 years $60 million.

Alex Gonzalez-SS. $6 million option, most likely excersised due to he being a decent shortstop in a position that has eluded a good player since he himself played a few years back

Jason Varitek-C. $3 million player option, team option most likely will be declined. It may be time for Varitek to retire and latch on as a coach in the Redsox organization.

Takashi Saito-RP. Option declined, but very likely to resign for a lower price.

Billy Wagner-RP. Wants to close, so he'll likely decline arbitration, and become a free agent, however he'll need to decide whether he wants a big payday and accept and just be a relief pitcher (arbitration needs to be at least 80% of the previous contract), or decline and take his chances in the free agent market.

On a related note, there may be a chance that the Redsox try trading Papelbon to a team in a package for a player such as Felix Hernandez or Adrian Gonzalez (provided that Heath Bell gets traded first), or for a package of young cost controlled players.

What's needed:
A left fielder. A lot of people complain about JD Drew's contract. In essense the contract that Bay will be receiving will be a good comparison between he and Drew. He's on the wrong side of 30, and is a poor fielder. Matt Holliday, in limited sample size has hit very well in Fenway Park, but would cost an arm and a leg in the bidding war that (agent Scott) Boras will be lobbying for. What i'd advise is to sign Jack Cust if he isn't tendered a contract, or maybe a trade for Adam Dunn, both are high power, low average guys who play subpar defense, but would help the Redsox with the recent struggles of David Ortiz and the fragility of Mike Lowell.

A catcher. Sign a stopgap guy to backup for Martinez, maybe a reunion with Josh Bard. Trade for Chris Snyder of the Diamondbacks, who could very well be had for salary relief due to the emergence of Miguel Montero, or call up Luis Exposito, Tim Federowicz, or Mark Wagner, all of which aren't presently ready to succeed in the major leagues.

Attempt to sign some relief pitchers. With Saito likely to resign at a lower salary, the Redsox
should attempt to sign Will Ohman or possibly if he isn't looking for a closer role, a reunion with Brandon Lyon.

Acquire a starting pitcher. I envision the Redsox signing at least one low-risk high-reward starter such as Rich Harden, Erik Bedard, Justin Duchscherer, but one pitcher I could see the Redsox seriously signing as a reclamation project is Noah Lowry on a minor league deal. Since he's had an injury that has made him unable to pitch through the last season, he'll likely be had for little.

Try to acquire a power hitting corner infielder. Try to sign someone to spell Lowell at third, or to spell Youkilis at first so he can play third, because Casey Kotchman doesn't have the power of a first baseman. Possibly sign someone along the lines of Hank Blalock, who could be a perfect fit as the backup.

Allow the players in the minors to develop fully. Let Michael Bowden, Lars Anderson, Josh Reddick, the three catchers I mentioned above, and Cuban shortstop Jose Iglesias time to develop fully and be ready by either September callups, or by spring training in 2011.

2010 may be a very long year for the Redsox if they don't accomplish (m)any of the goals that I believe should be the keys to the 2009-2010 offseason.